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Prediction for CME (2026-03-16T13:26:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-16T13:26Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45103/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. This event is not seen in STEREO A COR2 imagery in real-time due to a data gap starting at 2026-03-14T12:09Z. The source is an M2.7 flare and eruption from Active Region 14392 (S15E19) starting around 2026-03-13T12:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 imagery. A corresponding EUV wave is observed moving primarily northwest of the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195/304 imagery, with post-eruptive arcades visible starting around 2026-03-16T13:00Z. | Arrival information: Analysis of the complex arrival signature over 3/19 thorugh 3/22 indicates that we likely did not observe this CME separately from the other arrival signatures, and considering it a miss.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-19T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60317
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Mar 2026, 1236UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Mar 2026  10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Mar 2026  10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Mar 2026  10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 022

Coronal mass ejections: An asymmetric halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was
first detected in LASCO-C2 data from 12:36 UTC on March 16. This was
associated with the M2.7 flare (SIDC Flare 7220) from SIDC sunspot group
820 (NOAA Active Region 4392) located near the central meridian. There was
a large on disk dimming and Type II and Type IV radio emission associated
with this event. The CME was relatively slow around 550 km/s and initial
analysis suggests an arrival at Earth from late on March 19.

Lead Time: 54.58 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-03-17T11:25Z

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